data and other dangerous things

why this exists

Hi, I’m Osetohame or Matt, depending on which of my eras you met me.

I work with data, but that’s mostly an excuse. What I’m really interested in is why things happen and how to predict what’s next.

I have a habit of pulling on loose threads. Sometimes they morph into a spreadsheet. Sometimes they lead somewhere stranger.

This website is a side effect of that habit.

I build models, frameworks and investigations that help organisations understand customers, measure impact and make better decisions.

investigations

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who's about to ask for a mortgage? · training a random forest on 100,000 synthetic customers to spot the quiet signals of intent — and finding that behaviour beats demographics, every single time.open The £2 Million Marketing Mistake · A fictional retailer spends heavily across paid search, social and email. Which channels actually caused the growth?open not all customers are equal · a subscription business treated every customer the same. the top 8% were paying for the other 92%.open who will leave next? · a telco was firefighting churn after it happened. a propensity model moved the fight forward by 90 days.open

notes

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Learnings · Things I (re)learnt this week open Thoughts on Scaleopen

topics

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customer intelligence · Understanding who customers are and how they behave.open segmentation · Grouping customers in ways that drive decisions.open personalisation · Tailoring experiences without losing scale.open marketing measurement · Quantifying what marketing actually does.open attribution · Crediting the channels that earned the outcome.open experimentation · Learning by deliberately changing things.open forecasting · Estimating what is likely to happen next.open causal inference · Separating correlation from cause.open propensity modelling · Predicting who is likely to act.open customer lifetime value · Valuing relationships, not transactions.open single customer view · One record per person, finally.open decision science · How organisations choose under uncertainty.open

a publication about decision-making, customer behaviour, and the stories hidden inside data.